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Risk-benefit analysis of X-ray exposure associated with lung cancer screening in the Italung-CT trial.

Mascalchi M, Belli G, Zappa M, Picozzi G, Falchini M, Della Nave R, Allescia G, Masi A, Pegna AL, Villari N, Paci E

Sezione di Radiodiagnostica, Dipartimento di Fisiopatologia Clinica, Università di Firenze, Viale Morgagni 85, 50134 Firenze, Italia. m.mascalchi@dfc.unifi.it

OBJECTIVE: Prior analyses of X-ray exposures in lung cancer screening with CT considered the basic acquisition technique in single-detector scanners and the effects of a lifetime screening regimen, whereas the potential benefit in terms of lives saved was not addressed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We determined the total-body effective dose of different acquisition techniques for one single-detector and one MDCT scanner and made projections about the cumulative radiation exposure to smokers undergoing four annual CT examinations on the same scanners in the Italung-CT Trial. Combining these data with estimates of radiation-induced fatal cancer and of the benefit of screening, we calculated the risk-benefit ratio for participants in the trial, ex-smokers, and never-smokers. RESULTS: The cumulative effective doses per 1,000 subjects were 3.3 Sv using an MDCT scanner and 5.8 or 7.1 Sv using a single-detector scanner. Potential fatal cancers associated with radiation exposure were 0.11 per 1,000 subjects for MDCT scanners and 0.20 or 0.24 for single-detector scanners, which is about 10-100 times lower than the number of expected lives saved by screening assuming a 20-30% lung cancer-specific mortality reduction in current smokers. They were, however, of similar magnitude to the lives saved by screening in never-smokers and former smokers assuming a 10% efficacy of screening. CONCLUSION: MDCT is associated with lower radiation doses than single-detector CT technology. The risk of radiation dose in the Italung-CT Trial is compensated for by the expected benefit. CT screening for lung cancer should not be offered to never-smokers, whereas its recommendation in former smokers is debatable.

Published 24 July 2006 in AJR Am J Roentgenol, 187(2): 421-9.
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